Irish Unification Referendum Cannot Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Caution

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."